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Beijing has deployed its coast guard through the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and military drones past remote Japanese territory as China escalates tensions over the Japan's leader's remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Tokyo but also claimed by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts the island as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “unification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the US and other partner nations including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was likely the coast guard, active near the island over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near the island and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, seeming to travel unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are occasional, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said Beijing had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added the island had dispatched military assets to track the developments. Taiwan documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her remarks, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first occasion since 2023, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, China’s government on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards the island.