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Plug-in hybrid cars emit almost 5x greater global warming pollution than lab-reported data indicate, as per a recent analysis.

Widening Gap Between Official and Real-World CO2 Output

Statistics reveals that PHEVs emit only one-fifth less CO₂ than traditional petrol and diesel cars, according to research conducted by a advocacy organization. That differs sharply with lab tests, which suggested a 75% reduction in emissions.

Researchers studied information from onboard energy use meters of eight hundred thousand cars registered in Europe between 2021 and 2023. The team found that actual CO₂ output from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times higher than official figures, up from three and a half times in 2021.

“Actual CO2 output are rising, while official figures are decreasing,” stated a senior analyst participating in the report. “That discrepancy is widening and creates a significant issue. As a result, PHEVs pollute nearly as much as petrol vehicles.”

Primary Reasons Driving the Emissions Gap

Analysts attributed the majority of the gap to overestimates of the “utility factor” – the ratio of kilometers travelled in electric power compared to total distance. The team found that just 27% of driving was done in electric mode, while lab assumptions assumed 84%.

Additionally, when running in EV mode, pollution levels were significantly higher than official projections. That happened because electric motors were insufficiently powerful sufficient to function alone, resulting to combustion motors using gasoline for nearly a third of the travel completed in EV mode.

Policy and Financial Consequences

According to estimates, the underestimation of PHEV CO2 output allowed four large carmaker companies to escape over €5bn in penalties between 2021 and 2023, by falsely easing compliance with EU fleet-average CO₂ standards.

Furthermore, drivers of PHEVs could spend approximately €500 more per year in operating costs than would be estimated under lab conditions.

“The bold claims that automakers often promote about their plug-in hybrid cars are obviously way off the truth,” stated a automotive analyst. “Buyers are being misled into believing that by purchasing a PHEV, they are benefiting the planet and cutting costs. Actually, PHEVs are only slightly better than regular petrol and diesel cars in terms of fuel use, CO₂ emissions, and operating expenses.”

Political Debate and Automotive Pressure

Hybrid cars have recently been brought again into political debates as carmakers have pressed the EU to weaken CO₂ targets. A proposed ban on new combustion engine vehicles in 2035 has faced intense lobbying from the automotive sector and resistance from member states with significant automotive industries.

Several senior officials have proposed plug-in hybrids as a possible “compromise” option to include in the regulation.

An independent energy policy expert, who was unaffiliated with the research, described the analysis a “highly valuable contribution” after years in which parts of the car industry claimed there was too little information to accurately evaluate actual CO2 output.

“The results show, beyond any doubt, that the difference between official and real-world PHEV energy use and CO₂ emissions is much, much larger than for gasoline or conventional vehicles,” they said. “Any policy adjustments regarding PHEVs should be made with extreme caution and considering this evidence.”